Tris Shirley's Blog (5)

“One of the characteristics of a robust, enduring and mature civilization is the capacity to consider the longer term, aim for desirable but achievable futures, but have fall-back strategies and insurance policies to deal with surprise and uncertainty.”

So says Mr. David Holmgren in an essay on the web site  http://www.futurescenarios.org  .

This statement sums up exactly what I’m trying to do: figure out what kind of fall-back…

I previously proposed making a thorough examination of our economic future.  I suggested starting out by estimating whether a farmer could provide all of his essentials on a do-it-yourself basis .  That means he would grow his own food and also obtain water, shelter, clothing, and energy for cooking and heating on his own.  This would be much as the pioneers did when living in near isolation.

Some may think it unrealistic or undesirable to start by examining a do-it-yourself economy.…

 Last time, I suggested that production beyond the amount required for subsistence ultimately determines our post-transition standard of living.  To understand how this might work, consider the following three scenarios:

First, the least encouraging possibility.  Without all the non-renewable energy we consume now, productivity falls dramatically.  If individual productivity falls enough that a hard working, skilled person engaged in subsistence agriculture can’t supply themselves…

Previously, I observed that not knowing what level of consumption to expect in the post-transition era is risky business.  It would be very comforting to know that we can sustain ourselves without huge doses of fossil fuel energy. 

Unfortunately, predicting the future is risky business too.  Some have argued that our past has often been shaped by events that were never anticipated.  I agree and see no reason why the future should be any different.  The best we can do is to explore…

I ran across an interesting slogan a while ago.  “Powering down for a brighter future.”   I thought it was an excellent line – succinct, engaging, and optimistic.  But I started to wonder what the slogan really means.  In the Post-transition context, just why should anybody believe in a brighter future?  What, exactly, will be brighter?  How much brighter and in what ways?

I wouldn’t expect a slogan to supply all the details, but I haven’t found the answers anywhere else either.  This…