A Brighter Future?

[Tris Shirley]

I ran across an interesting slogan a while ago.  “Powering down for a brighter future.”   I thought it was an excellent line – succinct, engaging, and optimistic.  But I started to wonder what the slogan really means.  In the Post-transition context, just why should anybody believe in a brighter future?  What, exactly, will be brighter?  How much brighter and in what ways?

I wouldn’t expect a slogan to supply all the details, but I haven’t found the answers anywhere else either.  This strikes me as a problem.  Given a choice between unwarranted optimism and a stressful pessimism, I’d rather have neither.  I’d like a realistic assessment of some kind. This is partly motivated by simple curiosity.  But  it’s also because a realistic assessment could  be quite valuable.  It would tell us much about how to prepare for the future – whatever might be out there.

From what I’ve read, most Transition scholars believe that as energy becomes more expensive, our material standard of living will decline.  Since energy cost is a part of almost everything we consume, the prices of everything will rise.  We will be able to afford less and forced to consume less. 

On the other hand, certain non-material  aspects of life may be enhanced.  We might be forced by circumstance to collaborate more.  Perhaps our experience of community will then be better than it is now. That could be a welcome change.  But so far, my discussion – like all I’ve seen - has been quite general.  I know the expected direction of change, but I’m clueless about the amount of change – yet the amount is what really matters. 

With a little less stuff and a much better community life, the future could indeed be brighter.  But I’m concerned about the consumption side of things.  How much “less” are we talking about?  After all, you can only reduce your consumption so much before serious consequences arise.  Too much reduction and, ultimately, the physical  health and security of ourselves and our families becomes uncertain.

Therefore, knowing the amount of reduction – or more simply, the remaining level of consumption – is the key to a realistic assessment of our future.  After the transition, will we end up with a level of consumption that sustains us while protecting the ecosystem and preserving the planet’s resources?  In short, are we sustainable?

I have a proposal to address this question which I’ll discuss next time.

[Kate Clark]

Tris- That was my line, and I stand by it. For the reasons you mention, because I feel that even with a lot less stuff, and more time for each other, we'll be healthier and happier.  But only if our community comes together to build a new infrastructure to replace the old one which will crumble away without constant economic growth.  So, the future could well be brighter, but only if we work together.