Temperature is not the only issue - Transition Whatcom2024-03-28T09:42:09Zhttps://transitionwhatcom.ning.com/forum/topics/temperature-is-not-the-only?feed=yes&xn_auth=noI just got the book, which is…tag:transitionwhatcom.ning.com,2009-05-07:2723460:Comment:13842009-05-07T23:55:40.485ZDavid MacLeodhttps://transitionwhatcom.ning.com/profile/DavidMacLeod
I just got the book, which is basically Holmgren's <a href="http://futurescenarios.org">FutureScenarios.org</a> website in book form. I think Holmgren outlines the Peak Oil/Climate Change scenarios very well, and I highly recommend it, as I think it is a very important book. It should be noted that Holmgren is a primary influence on Rob Hopkins and the whole Transition movement.<br />
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From Carolyn Baker's review: "What Holmgren wants the reader to understand, however, is that the four scenarios are…
I just got the book, which is basically Holmgren's <a href="http://futurescenarios.org">FutureScenarios.org</a> website in book form. I think Holmgren outlines the Peak Oil/Climate Change scenarios very well, and I highly recommend it, as I think it is a very important book. It should be noted that Holmgren is a primary influence on Rob Hopkins and the whole Transition movement.<br />
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From Carolyn Baker's review: "What Holmgren wants the reader to understand, however, is that the four scenarios are not linear; he imagines them as "one nested within the other." This suggests, he says, "that the four organizational levels represented by the scenarios from the household to the national level will all be transformed as global systems weaken and contract, but none will fail completely." (101) Not unlike the scenarios of collapse Dmitry Orlov relates regarding the former Soviet Union, Holmgren's four-nested schema suggests that in the Earth-Steward and Lifeboat scenarios, there could still be a government issuing edicts, but no one, outside that nation's capital, would take notice.<br />
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One unmistakable conclusion Future Scenarios draws is that the more slowly the decline unfolds, the more opportunity for planning and mobilizing for the demise; the more rapidly events occur, the more traumatic the unraveling will be because of the inability to put new systems in place which may allow it to be more navigable.<br />
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As noted above, economic collapse is impeding rampant growth and in that sense, despite the pain it is creating for millions of humans, may be allowing the earth community to breathe a bit easier for a bit longer. Or as Holmgren says, "The economic hard-liners could be right: There is no way to stop the train of global industrial capitalism (other than by crashing)."<br />
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Future Scenarios offers fascinating and fertile challenges for engaging Peak Oil and climate change and confronts us with the question that will not die: Will our journey to a post-petroleum world be a transition or a trauma? The longer we wait to make the profoundly radical choices necessary at this juncture of history, the greater the certainty that choices we would not prefer will be made for us." <a href="carolynbaker.net/site/content/view/1030/1/">CarolynBaker.net</a><br />
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<cite>Walter Haugen said:</cite><blockquote cite="http://transitionwhatcom.ning.com/forum/topics/temperature-is-not-the-only#2723460Comment1232"><div>Tom - I just finished Holmgren's <i>Future Scenarios</i> (2009) and he leans toward a mild climate change scenario. This is based on mild or severe climate change and moderate or rapid energy decline, pigeon-holed into a Punnett square configuration. I recommend his book, even though I don't agree with many of his base points. Your PP slides argue for severe climate change, which leaves only Brown Tech or Lifeboat scenarios. Again, I have my own evaluation, but Holmgren provides an easy way to "vision" the future.</div>
</blockquote> Walter
My main point is not…tag:transitionwhatcom.ning.com,2009-05-06:2723460:Comment:12832009-05-06T18:35:34.140ZTom Andersonhttps://transitionwhatcom.ning.com/profile/TomAnderson
Walter<br />
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My main point is not that climate change is going to be one way or the other. Since we cannot explain the historic variation it seems to me that the only viable adapation is to always plan for a more extreme posibility and make sure the systems put in place are flexible enough to cope with a worst case. Planning for and doing just enough for a mild climate change is not helpful if it turns out to be large. Making sure that our system modifications have the flexibility to deal with…
Walter<br />
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My main point is not that climate change is going to be one way or the other. Since we cannot explain the historic variation it seems to me that the only viable adapation is to always plan for a more extreme posibility and make sure the systems put in place are flexible enough to cope with a worst case. Planning for and doing just enough for a mild climate change is not helpful if it turns out to be large. Making sure that our system modifications have the flexibility to deal with greater climate variability provides the resilience to cope with climates potential variability. Our other large need is to expand our understanding of climate and what drives its variation so that we can have more conficence in planning.