Comments - Unfogging the Crystal Ball - Transition Whatcom2024-03-28T14:52:56Zhttp://transitionwhatcom.ning.com/profiles/comment/feed?attachedTo=2723460%3ABlogPost%3A48154&xn_auth=noThanks for the comment, David…tag:transitionwhatcom.ning.com,2011-04-17:2723460:Comment:480312011-04-17T17:45:51.131ZTris Shirleyhttp://transitionwhatcom.ning.com/profile/TrisShirley
<p>Thanks for the comment, David. I'll check out the Holmgren website and the scenarios on the ERSPO Wiki.</p>
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<p>Your comment stimulated me to realize that one could start with an evaluation of any scenario and then move toward rosier or more bleak depending on what was revealed. If there were a great groundswell of support for doing that, I suppose I'd go along. However, my suspicion is that the more reassuring and psychologically appealing scenarios might be a lot more complex,…</p>
<p>Thanks for the comment, David. I'll check out the Holmgren website and the scenarios on the ERSPO Wiki.</p>
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<p>Your comment stimulated me to realize that one could start with an evaluation of any scenario and then move toward rosier or more bleak depending on what was revealed. If there were a great groundswell of support for doing that, I suppose I'd go along. However, my suspicion is that the more reassuring and psychologically appealing scenarios might be a lot more complex, require many more assumptions, and be harder to investigate. In short: more work, less reliable conclusions. Perhaps I'll change my mind after reviewing the ones you mentioned.</p>
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<p>On third thought, the need to have a group of people agree on what constitutes "realistic" strikes me as daunting. How would we do that? Would you vote? Seek consensus? There is probably a narrower range of opinion about what is realistic among Transition supporters than within the general community. But I suspect we are still far from agreement. One reason for starting with the most challenging scenario is that it will (I think) be a lot easier to agree on the underlying assumptions. If your assumption "A" is more challenging than my assumption "A", we'll use yours.</p>
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<p>The other thing essential for teamwork is some agreement on underlying principles. For example, I'll argue that individual productivity is the key to our future economy (or lack thereof). The gross community product is the sum of the individuals' production. Average productivity is the gross divided by the population. If the average productivity of the community is too low, it wouldn't matter whether "everyone pulled together" or not. What people want to happen is important, but it isn't the controlling factor. I think that considering the very simple economics of a worst case scenario will allow us to illuminate and agree on some essential principles.</p>
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<p>However, I suppose it is more important for an idea to be popular than useful, so my reasoning may be pointless...</p> Good post, Tris. Many people…tag:transitionwhatcom.ning.com,2011-04-17:2723460:Comment:482272011-04-17T00:34:28.284ZDavid MacLeodhttp://transitionwhatcom.ning.com/profile/DavidMacLeod
<p>Good post, Tris. Many people have trouble starting with considering the worst case scenario, and find a better starting place to consider a realistic scenario that could occur IF everyone pulled together and worked toward its realization.</p>
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<p>On the other hand, I always remember the Thomas Hardy quote used at the beginning of the movie "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM" target="_blank">The End of Suburbia</a>": "If a path to the better there be, it must begin…</p>
<p>Good post, Tris. Many people have trouble starting with considering the worst case scenario, and find a better starting place to consider a realistic scenario that could occur IF everyone pulled together and worked toward its realization.</p>
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<p>On the other hand, I always remember the Thomas Hardy quote used at the beginning of the movie "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM" target="_blank">The End of Suburbia</a>": "If a path to the better there be, it must begin with a full look at the worst."</p>
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<p>Regarding scenarios, I really like how David Holmgren has laid them out.</p>
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<p><strong>Future Scenarios</strong><br/> David Holmgren (co-founder of the concept of Permaculture) has an extremely interesting global scenario planning website, <em>Future Scenarios</em>. Holmgren says his future scenarios will help both policy makers and activists come to terms with the simultaneous onset of climate change and the peaking of global oil supply. “The simultaneous onset of climate change and the peaking of global oil supply represent unprecedented challenges for human civilisation. Each limits the effective options for responses to the other,” writes Holmgren. His scenarios are labeled "Brown Tech," "Green Tech," "Earth Steward," and "Lifeboats." Holmgren discusses the possibilities of either a continuous, steady "energy descent" or a longer term stair step descent with numerous variations. He also examines the possibility of these scenarios "as all emerging simultaneously one nested within the other."<br/> <a class="wiki_link_ext" href="http://www.futurescenarios.org/" rel="nofollow">http://www.futurescenarios.org</a></p>
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<p>To examine other 'peak oil' scenarios, I compiled a list of scenarios to examine for the Energy Resource Scarcity/Peak Oil Task Force here:</p>
<p><a href="http://erspo.wikispaces.com/Scenarios" target="_blank">http://erspo.wikispaces.com/Scenarios</a></p>